OREGON DUCK FOOTBALL PREVIEW 2006

Disclaimer: I didn’t run a spell check and many names have been altered accidentally or on purpose. I have been to zero, 0, practices this year. I don’t know any of the players personally. All of my info comes from the spinsters, my gut, the television and all the games I have been to (although I can’t remember many of them) or been kicked out of. This is all just my opinion, or as those pink-panty-wearing message board geeks say, IMHO.


Well, well, well, here we go again. Let’s start this off and be very clear… this is the most athletic Duck football team in history. Ever. Whether it’s the locker rooms, uniforms, some winning seasons, we are now starting to compete with the tradition powerhouses and occasionally win top level recruits. More than anything, the speed and depth that separates consistent football programs from the every-so-often good teams are now wearing a Green, Yellow, Black, or White jersey.

What to expect this season:

Defense

How do you replace players like Ngata, Gipson, Phinisee, Long, and Trucks? Well, you don’t, but programs are able to rebuild quickly and we should be able to not drop off too much. Ngata was the only one of them that truly was a special player and at defensive tackle, although he required two linemen to block him, the impact isn’t as great as say a middle linebacker.

Speaking of the linebackers, the most important person on this defense is senior middle linebacker Blair Phillips. He is a physical, athletic, linebacker that played well the end of the year after transferring as a JUCO. He looks like an NFL-caliber player and may well be one after this year. Why are we just hearing about him now if he is so good? Allioti’s defenses are complicated and put a lot of pressure on the players to know assignments and positioning, especially the linebackers. That’s why Mr. Inspirational from last year Brent Haberly started in the middle, he knew the system. Should Phillips go down, the defense will lose a major weapon in the arsenal and will have a hard time stopping decent offenses, particularly with the pass. He has to stay healthy. Haberly, starts on the weak side and will be a good enough run stopper. He simply can’t keep up with most receivers/tight-ends come passing downs. We’ll probably continue to see the 3rd&long with the linebackers dropping three into a soft zone and teams picking up the first. It has happened for so long I have come to expect it now. Why they continue to drop 15 yards back if it’s 3rd&9 I don’t know, but probably has a lot to do with the speed of the linebackers and Phillips should help in the area, although until I see different… Kwame Agyeman has played well enough to probably take away the other linebacker (or strong safety, however you look at it) away from A.J. Tuitele. Tuitele played pretty well last year so we are probably fine here. Sophomore Jerome Boyd has played well and will get time also.

Remember when Gipson, Phinisee, Binns, and the like were freshman? We had seniors that graduated at the cornerback position and were picked-apart/eaten alive. Gipson and Phinisee graduated, but this year should not be as bad as a few years before, although there are always question marks. Second-year secondary coach John Neal is a big part of the optimism. Jackie Bates has one side locked up and the kid can run. He has some experience and should be alright even though he is a small corner at a generous 5-10 180. On the other side, Jackie’s high school teammate and walk-on Terrell Ward looked to be physical enough to land that spot before hurting the knee. Now it will be either Walter Thurmond or Willie Glasper. We’ll see what works including maybe using Jameel Dowling some or even moving Chung to corner if need be. The depth at this position is athletic enough that the inexperience shouldn’t be as much a factor as some years ago, although this is the Pac-10.

The safety position clearly is the strength of the defense. JD Nelson and Patrick Chung are proven and will vie for all-league honors. Both are physical, can stop the run, and will smack anyone running deep over the middle. Chung is the most athletic player on the defense and if the corner back position is problematic will be moved there. Matthew Harper came in as a JUCO transfer and immediately started making plays this spring. He is going to be tough to keep off the field, but no way he sees time ahead of the starters. Jarius Byrd is ripped and adds depth as well as former walk-on Ryan DePalo; both look good.

For the defense to be successful this year, the D-line has to put some pressure on the quarterback. This is critical. We have all seen Aliotti’s tendency to sit back on 3rd&long, and the Pac-10 has too talented of offenses not to find the opening given enough time. The anchor of this line is Matt Toeaina. He will start at either the inside or outside, due to season-ending injury to Harris and Filipe now out for the first half of the season. The depth here is an area for concern. So much so, that Ed Dickson, was just moved to DE after being Ryan Leaf’s favorite big target (6-5 230) and some stand-out performances at the TE position on offense. Darius Sanders will be back for a final year and looks good at one DE. JUCO transfer Jeremy Gibbs (it was between us and OU interestingly enough) has played very well since arriving and will see considerable time. Reed will also play a lot as well as Linehan and Faaeteete who probably start if healthy. The son of former Washington Redskin Hall-of-Famer Dexter Manley, Dexter Manley II, signed with the Ducks after playing a year, maybe two at the high school level and then two in junior college. He could be used on passing downs as he is a physical specimen able to go after the QB, but still very raw overall. With any line, there should be lots of shuffle. Whoever is in there, they got to get to the QB once in a while or our young DBs could be in trouble.

The defense will be tested but should be alright thanks in large part to an offense that is able to score.

OFFENSE

Stacked with Playmakers. Last year’s clusterfuck finish at the Holiday Bowl and the quarterback shuffle appears to have been decided. Dixon was hot in the Holiday Bowl and taken out to make sure Leaf got his time. Everyone knows the two-quarterback system isn’t really in the best interest of the team, but give Bellotti a little (tiny) bit of credit. Although it may have cost us the game, by giving Leaf his opportunity, whether he was the better QB for the moment or not, he is still on the team. You only need to look as far as ASU to see why this is important. As we saw last year with Kellen, when Numero Uno goes down and it can happen, someone better be there to step in. Had Dixon been named the #1 in spring, Leaf isn’t wearing green, yellow, black, white, and diamond plating this fall. Regardless, Dixon is the starter, Leaf the backup and Costa appears head and shoulders better than the other freshman QBs. Dixon looks to have become more accurate with his decision making and a somewhat more vocal leader. (A side note, he got a 4.0 GPA last term. Seriously. If you heard interviews of him when he first arrived in Eugene, you’d understand my surprise. I don’t know what classes that entailed, but none-the-less.) He will be good this year. We all know he has a gun and can flat out burn (UO record 40-time for QB) when given the room. An important part of the Crowton offense is the QB’s ability to run the option (which scares the crap out of me with his stick-frame even after putting on weight this off-season), keeping the defense somewhat honest so that he can throw, and throw he will.

As far as targets, you can’t ask for much more than our crop of receivers. Hopefully, leading the way is junior wideout Cameron Colvin. A big-time recruit that has played alright, but we are still waiting for that breakout season. He can make plays at times as evidenced by the catch and run against Fresno State last year. The vocal leader of the group, senior James Finley is a possession receiver playing the slot that catches the ball. That has been a real problem for this group lately, and Finley also for that matter at the end of the year, but he will catch most everything thrown his way. His block against SC when the game was getting away from us shows just what kind of player he is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6Fy9j16xx0

Even if Bellotti won’t say right now these are the #1 and 2 receivers, they are. Who fills in that third, and I guess 4th and 5th spot will probably change. Right now junior Garren Strong appears to have the edge. He was named the #1 receiver by Bellotti after being the most consistent in the last week’s scrimmage. This is the third year he has excelled in practice. As AI says, “we’re all here talkin’ bout practice, man”, let’s just hope he shows it for once come game day. Derrick Jones has world-class speed (he won the California 200m) and is a football player, not just a runner. He has been in Bellotti’s doghouse for not being in Eugene during “voluntary” workouts this summer, but is coming out of that with his play on the field. He originally signed with SC as a top recruit but didn’t make the grades and sat out last year in Eugene getting up to par. He will see the time on the field as a freshman this year. Jaison Williams is 6-5 243pounds and can run. He catches the ball a lot with his body, and what a massive body it is, but can create space between him and the defender with ease. Brian Paysinger is one of the fastest on the team and somewhat tall at 6-2 208 along with Weatherspoon at 6-1 204 will round it out. Not to be forgotten, Jordan Kent. I don’t know how his dad kept his job last year and after that pathetic team performance on the court, Jordan realizes his chance at something great may come on the football field. At 6-5 210 and being one of the best athletes in the country, he is learning how to be a football player. He’s starting to catch the ball more consistently, working hard at it before and after practices, but also making people miss after he goes up and gets it. Once he gets a slight step, he’s gone. On some other teams he might start, but he’ll see the field just enough. Jones and him going deep is a defensive coordinator’s nightmare. Rosario fills out the TE position as a dependable senior who can catch the ball and is a mis-match against any linebacker. He is a playmaker no matter how you look at it although playing in a soft cast at the present after a “non-football related injury”. Sounds to me like he punched a wall, but I’m guessing. The H-back, whatever that is, will be Kause and Keeling backing up.

All these weapons at receiver, the spread offense, are we going to run the ball at all? The answer… yes. It wasn’t that long ago, Crowton was running a version of the spread at BYU and had the nation’s leading rusher in Luke Staley. I have never seen as much hype for any Duck athlete as Jonathan Stewart. The Heisman is not unrealistic to dream about before his career at the UofO is over. The question is not keeping him out of the police blotter/newspapers, ala former Duck Bongterrio. Stewart is a god-fearing good kid. The question is health. He is such a super-freak athlete he is somewhat prone to injury. Let’s look at some of his stats:
5-11, 243 pounds, 410 bench press, 4.34 40-yard dash (hand-timed usually add .2 for NFL combine time), and 38.5 inch vertical leap (second only to Latin Berry for football player).
When he gets the ball, for duck fans it’s like watching Bonds hit in his prime or Jordan with the ball and the game on the line, you just don’t want to miss it. An arm tackle will not bring him down. This kid will do some real special things this year running through people and straight by them. Backing him up and certain to also see the field is sophomore Jeremiah Johnson. No slouch himself, he is an all-around good running back with good speed, moves, and maybe better vision than JStew.

The line will allow Dixon time to throw and Stewart to run. They are big (Lucas 6-4 300, Sun 6-6 335, Tschirgi 6-4 311, Unger 6-5 296, and Schwartz 6-7 340), quick, deep and should be very solid. Who they are doesn’t really matter just as long as the ball gets back to the QB (Lucas, I’m looking in your direction after the Holiday Bowl) and give him time.

The offense will put some serious points on the board.

Special Teams

This is always an understated important aspect to the game. Bellotti loves the field position game and that may have led to the creation of “The Shield”. “The Shield” is dogshit. I don’t know if the TV show is good, but the formation sucks. Bellotti says it’s staying but I don’t believe him. It will be modified down to something much more conventional, or we will see multiple blocked punts. I believe our punter, Dragich, is scared for his life behind this thing. He’ll be fine if the formation goes, otherwise this has the potential to cost us a game.

Paul Martinez is up for whatever kicking award (Grohls?) they give along with Serna, but he doesn’t have a chance. He’ll blow a couple of easy ones and hit a few long ones. Don’t know the guy, but have absolutely no confidence in him. Never have.

Kick return team should be fun to watch. Jonathan Stewart’s first touch as a Duck in Autzen Stadium he took it to the house. Granted, it was against Montana, but still impressive and hopefully foretelling. Next to the nation’s leading kick returner last year could be Jeremiah Johnson, which is nice.

Punt return I sure hope to see speedster Derrick Jones.

On all special teams we should see talented football players from top to bottom. Possible to make an impression as well as others is the Stormin’ Mormon, 6-7 freshman Brandon Bair. The TE moved to DE Bair has blocked kicks in practice and the spring game with his huge wingspan. Don’t be surprised to see him get to one this year.

Schedule

The schedule this year is brutal. We play a difficult non-conference and every PAC-10 team, with the good ones on the road. Starting off:

Stanford at home – This will be an offensive battle. Trent Edwards is one of the better QBs around and a senior going against out inexperience corners. Their D is terrible though and they just lost their middle linebacker, their best player. Ducks cruise but give up some big plays.

At Fresno State – Walking into a gang fight. Nobody wants to go into FSU with a bullseye on their back, just ask the Beavs a few years ago. “Heisman my ass, you suck!” You have to give Bellotti some credit for living up to the promise of a return game. Their fans are thugs and feel they were cheated out of the W in Eugene last year. If you are going to this game watch your back and it might be time to start brandishing firearms, really. This will be a tough game but Ducks should win.

Oklahoma – Every year there is one game, and this year needs no introduction. Don’t have your 1st team QB anymore? Now you know how the Holiday Bowl was for us. Bomar never scared me as eventually he had to start making some mistakes. What scares me is the D. Their LBs are really fast. We need to get ahead. The fans will be ready. This weekend has the best games of the year so don’t expect Gameday in Eugene.

Bye – would rather have it later in the season. Thanks Utah/Utah State whoever it was.

At Arizona State – Unless Carpenter (and he is good) is hurt, the QB situation means nothing. The offense should put some real points on the board but so should we. Last year this is when the season really came together for us. Gotta like the Ducks here, even if the pundits don’t.

At Cal – Did I tell you the schedule is brutal yet? The only real question on this Cal team is at QB. Tough to bet against Tedford here. This is a tough, tough game for us. They will lose to Tennessee in their first game though.

UCLA – It’s nice to be home. We should beat them. Dorrell will be on the hot seat by the end of the year.

At Washington State – Doba is gone at the end of the year. They only have one playmaker and the rest is average at best.

Portland State – puhlease. The tailgating will be fun. Rather have the bye here.

Washington – How nice is it to see a perennial Pac-10 champion and national title contender fall off the face of college football and it is the Fuskies? I will never forget how disappointed I was when Lambright was fired (nobody could be as bad and hated as Lambright), only to be filled with joy when Slick Rick was brought in (wait, yes someone could!). They unintentionally imposed their own “death penalty” and still are feeling the effects. It won’t last forever, so enjoy now. Four wins for this team is actually a pretty good year. What a wonderful world.

At USC – There is no way in hell SC wins out. Won’t happen, even though all tough games are at home. They lose atleast two games, probably early against Nebraska, but if they manage to get by NE, then they lose to Arizona in Tempe. Don’t be surprised if they lose at Arkansas. You heard it here. Come end of the year they will be as good as any team in the country, but not early. The playing field is a little more leveled out with the scholarship limit and not even Petey can have that good of run. I know they are loaded, (they literally have the pick of anyone on the west coast and the rest of us just wait to see what’s available) LOADED with talent, but it doesn’t work like that. We’ll play them tough. I think we beat them.

Arizona – this will be a tough home game. The other Stoops comes to town and will play us tough. You gotta believe we win at home though. This will be the most improved team in the Pac-10. Tough D, good QB. They’ll be in the upper half of the conference and going bowling.

Civil War at Parker – Streak ends. They are playing to not have a losing season, but the level of talent between the two schools has diverged. I was routing for them in baseball though, big time.




9-3 wouldn’t be bad with this schedule. The potential is there for something really special. Usually you see those “special” teams with senior leadership, something this team may be lacking. Next year should be, well, we’ll wait until then. But this is a team that could go many different directions. Again, that ASU game will be pivotal. My realistic prediction is 9-3, although I’m going with the heart and full-on believing we’ll win it.

Pac-10 looks like this
1. Oregon (how can I pick anything else)
2. Cal (could win it)
3. USC (the opposite of Oregon’s schedule with everyone at home)
4. Arizona (will be a very good team)
5. Arizona State (they under perform every year)
6. Stanford (Senior QBs do well in the Pac-10, could be higher but the D)
7. Oregon State (cake non-conference and playing a Hawaii after us is their bowl)
8. UCLA (won too many close ones last year and lost playmakers from then)
9. Washington State (what happened to the power of the conf. in the NW?)
10. Washington (no team deserves it more)


If you don’t know, now you know.

I am out.